MORE OPTIMISM REGARDING GOP PROSPECTS ON ELECTION DAY – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times, which must hate to report this: 

Republican chances of taking control of the Senate have risen to 72 percent, the highest level yet in the almost six months that The Upshot’s forecasting model has been tracking the race. The odds rose from 68 percent on Monday and from a low of 50 percent last month.

The main cause of the latest shift is new polling in Kansas, which suggests the race is now a true tossup rather than a race in which the Republican, Senator Pat Roberts, is a slight underdog. Our latest forecast gives Mr. Roberts a 52 percent chance to win in November, making the race between him and Greg Orman, an independent candidate, essentially a coin flip.

As outside money has poured into the state over the past month, Kansas is emerging as one of the most competitive Senate races of 2014. The Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, quit the race in early September, and Mr. Orman’s chances then spiked. Mr. Orman has said he would caucus with the majority party if he won, converting a sure Republican seat into a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Campaigns over the past month have been trending toward the Republicans in Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana, and the odds of a Republican upset, though still fairly long, have also risen in Michigan and New Hampshire. To some extent, Mr. Orman’s earlier gains obscured these trends. Now that these gains may be slowing or reversing, the full effect of the erosion in the Democratic position is starting to be felt. Thus in many ways, the latest increase in the G.O.P.'s overall chances is less of a surge and more of a return to normal.

COMMENT:  But again, being the party pooper I was destined to be, I point out that almost three weeks remain in the race.  Anything can happen.  GOP leads in most states are narrow.  One big GOP scandal, and you may be sure the mainstream media is looking for it, can upset any projections.  So we wait and fight.

October 16,  2014